Grasping the fact that we have a situation of great urgency

Dear Fellow Human Traveller on this beautiful Planet

We have one continuing item of prime news: Urgency (the rest we regard as news details). The sooner we start, the better we can plan for Transition, the better we will manage it, and the kinder it will be for our children and grandchildren. Starting sooner will make an enormous difference because energy now is so, so, so much cheaper than manual labour. But cheap energy will not last much longer. We have a little "window of opportunity" to plan now for a lean future while we still have some cheap oil left. We can still plan, rather than be forced, unprepared, to change because of very unwelcome circumstances. But first we need key information about Peak Oil and "the Big Melt" of polar land ice, from cutting-edge scientific sources. We need clear, hard information - but the widespread denial, dilution, or suppression of key information, and the scientific, psychological and political factors, are seriously compounding our problems. The key truths may be depressing but without them we cannot find true empowerment. People may feel despair - but we can also rise to the occasion. We can then ask “what can I do?” to enable this extremely perilous Transition to happen in the most civilized way. Increasing numbers of people see a need for a "wartime effort" "mobilization", and realize this has to start with a program of "Education for Transition to Sustainability".

Climate Change and Peak Oil are poised to have huge impact on our lives and lifestyles, wherever we live. Transition Towns are showing how we can creatively prepare to cope and plan an energy descent to a future "lean energy" reality that is coming whether we like it or not. Climate Change evidence is getting bleaker. Planet Earth has passed her carrying capacity. We ought to do our utmost to reduce both population and consumption in as civilized a way as possible. This needs imagination and sharing good ideas. Fighting for resources is extremely wasteful of what little we have left. It would be far better to develop new deep ways to cooperate. There is also serious evidence that Great Spirit, by whatever name we know God, has been aware of this coming crunch for a long time. This is now the time of reckoning: a situation of utmost urgency that impacts each of us to the core of our beings. We have only one planet, after all.

It is vital to see how all the key issues impact together, with

• The Big Melt report showing ice melting much faster than "official" IPCC predictions
• the serious likelihood of sea level rises far in excess of the "40 cm" currently on official websites. The Hansen Report says that the land ice on Greenland and West Antarctica is slipping faster and may speed up more and more, with hidden meltwater "lubricating" its slip rate. If all the polar land ice (Antarctica and Greenland) melted, there would be a sea rise of 80 metres (US Geological Survey), and though this seems not likely, it seems more than possible that at current warming rates, Greenland and West Antarctica could melt, each causing a sea level rise of 7-8 metres.
• the Hansen Report stating serious "tipping points" that could come far sooner and more seriously than IPCC predicts
• the rainforests being rapidly burned which is the single biggest contribution (25%) to global warming
• the government hypocrisy (or ignorance?) in promoting low energy bulbs while failing to ratchet up international pressure to stop forest burning, and while planning airport expansion, using new planning laws - the call for urgency could be misused to stifle the examination of facts we need to know in order to make decisions that will not harm the future
• the lack of Government awareness of the ramifications of nuclear energy - disposal nightmares and Peak Uranium, quite apart from the increased cost of all contingency operations in a post-oil age
• the general continuation of business, planning and government as if business can continue as usual, when we really have a situation of wartime urgency and emergency that needs powerful change from all of us, starting with crash courses of education for all, so we understand, accept, and help develop the changes ourselves
• time running out - the longer we stay in denial, the harder we make things for ourselves and even more, for our children - therefore it is urgent to plan NOW to have as civilized a transition as possible from our high-energy present to a more fragile, low-energy but sustainable future
• dangers to civilized behaviour - when serious depression hit Germany in the 1920's this gave a space for the rise of Nazi Germany - we now see a similar rise in the US.

What is needed is a massive re-prioritising, focussing on Education for Transition to Sustainability, drawing on Permaculture, Science, and Good Spirituality. We need a whole "Transition" science, a research and education programme -

• mobilization for a War Effort
• this requires people's basic understanding of what we are facing, with key science and key facts upfront, easily available and checkable, so that people can make free choices;
• a developing programme of Transition from our present "Oil Party" unsustainable "addiction" to a future situation of true sustainability: the skills and positive attitudes we will need for “resilience” against future energy shocks, and the “relocalized” infrastructures we want to develop, to make this transition as civilized as possible – drawing on the work of many, including Life Coaching, Transition Towns, and Permaculture in particular.
• everything not relevant to this, cut back so that we can see more clearly the way forward
• help to increase emotional support to deal with the many ways in which the trauma of awakening can occur and can create problems even between those who care (what Rob Hopkins called "post-petroleum stress disorder")
• openness to spiritual dimensions - there are many signs that although the crisis is truly terrible and demands our utmost committment to work together to solve the problems, nevertheless, Spirit has not been unaware, but has sent help, sometimes years in advance, and is still sending help for people to draw on.
• leaving room for the unexpected, the miraculous, the paradigm shifts, and taking up slack to move on.

“Crash courses” in True Sustainability Education must be holistic, body soul and spirit, to cope with the huge paradigm shift that true global awakening will be for many people - but it starts with the scientific data presented accurately and succinctly as Richard Heinberg has been doing. We need to bring through basic education programmes, for all ages, using evening classes, TV, WEA, etc in addition to schools and universities, so that:

• governments can make more responsible choices in cooperation with an increasingly aware electorate;
• the electorate understands the urgency and inevitability of drastic lifestyle changes, if we are to come through in a civilized way - and is then prepared and even clamouring for tough legislation and rationing - but legislation that does not compromise ordinary people's freedom - often ordinary people can see issues clearly that the "experts" all fail to see;
• we raise the profile of the drastic need for international cooperation and thereby help it become real,
• we don’t waste our dwindling precious resources on warfare
• we realize that the sooner we learn, envision, plan, and act, the more hope we can offer our children – otherwise we are stealing from our children’s future.

Any "war effort" mobilization programme has to start with “Education for Transition to True Sustainability”. We would be really glad if you can give this thought. We look forward to your response here. Join the Forum. Get in touch.

Rob Hopkins: Permaculture can be described as “a revolution disguised as organic gardening”, and the Transition model is designed similarly to "come in under the radar". Campaigning, lobbying, protesting are insufficient for the job in hand, that of navigating a society through energy descent. New tools must include drawing together a diversity of individuals and organizations akin to the “wartime mobilization”. Part of achieving this, it seems, is to seek to put in place more inclusive, democratic, low energy and localized infrastructure in such a way that it is perceived as positive, fun and unthreatening. The traditional activist dynamic of seeking someone to blame is completely inappropriate.

key page - last updated 24th April 2008

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