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Green World Trust No greenwash here. Just truths as we find them, open to discussion and change
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Lucy Skywalker Site Admin

Joined: 09 May 2006 Posts: 544 Location: Somerset, UK
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Posted: 23 Apr 2009 09:46 pm Post subject: Mauna Loa figures prove the CO2 rise is natural |
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I think I've found a cracker of the first order.
I think I've shown that by careful measurement of the Mauna Loa graph, together with careful measurements of the CO2 emissions graphs from CDIAC (both 1800-2000 and 1950-2010) one can prove that the CO2 rise simply cannot be due purely to our emissions; and that the extraordinary close fit between their CO2 seasonally-adjusted curve and the cumulative emissions curve, drawn at 57% total values, and then slid up the y-axis to fit, is a sheer fluke.
I've tried to get the info into a form good enough to submit to WUWT because I think I've cracked an important piece of bad science; but for goodness sake, I might be wrong and I might have missed something obvious. So I'd like to run the piece past the smaller number here first.
I'd appreciate comments on both the science and the style. The piece is called
"Hidden surprises in the CO2 figures
they contain the proof that they cannot be from our emissions!" |
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Mike Davis Experienced User
Joined: 12 Dec 2008 Posts: 291 Location: E. Tennessee USA
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Posted: 24 Apr 2009 05:41 am Post subject: |
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Lucy:
I have seen 4% 6% or 8% of the anual CO2 from sources is from human sources. I also have a problem that some 50% of that amount is the amount that is left at the end of the yearly cycle of CO2 source to sink. I think the issue of a warming planet allows more biologicial growth which includes more chemecials moveing through the biosphere. I include the obvious chemecial combinations like water, CO2, Calcium, Nitrogen, the things that are food for plants that allow animals to have more food which allows for more animals which emit more chemicals that are used as food for the plants.
Think about a cows place in the biosphere or any animal. I read a paper that wanted to show a relationship between sea shell growth and temperature of the ocean. In a warmer region there is more rain which disolves more calcium which provides more material for shell growth. CO2 disolves in rain drops and becomes calcium carbonate when it desolves the calcium that is locked up in rocks so it can be used by nature.
That was an attempt to show there is a natural cause for additional sources and sinks in a warming globe which accounts for the discrepency in the climate science guesswork. Instead of disapearing species we can expect increase in species and abundence instead of famine if the globe warms to the level it was dureing the Halocene Optimum when the trees were growing around the Artic Ocean and the ice sheet on Greenland was as little as 20% of todays size.
We are not releaseing anything into the biosphere that was not there before. We may be recombineing natural elements to make things we want. When all is said and done everything is natural. We only hae the ability to modify nature but part of natural activity has always been modification as is seen in historical events/ records.
Warming is related to CO2 but I feel the cause for higher CO2 levels is natural biosphere growth that warming allows. |
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hqmonaro Experienced User
Joined: 29 Mar 2009 Posts: 81
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Posted: 24 Apr 2009 07:05 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I believe that a basic level of science training should be enough to understand Climate Science. |
That is not a logical belief. The complexity of Climate Science is something that does not depend in any way on what your beliefs are. It is something that is completely independent of you. I find the complexity of climate science mind boggling at times. That's not my fault, or the fault of climate science, it's just how things are. You are trying to understand the climate of a whole planet. Even the scientists who study it have to specialise in different sub areas of the science.
It's like saying the science of the human body should be understood by anyone with a basic level of science training. That's not going to happen either. The biology of the human body is also amazingly complex, yet scientists still manage to make amazing advances in uderstanding how it works, and using techology and science that is beyond my understanding. |
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Lucy Skywalker Site Admin

Joined: 09 May 2006 Posts: 544 Location: Somerset, UK
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Posted: 24 Apr 2009 09:44 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the comment HQ that was badly worded, and really that was not the place to start to get into my basic philosophy, so I've simply removed that paragraph.
Now.... how about the maths, the logic of the maths? |
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hqmonaro Experienced User
Joined: 29 Mar 2009 Posts: 81
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Posted: 26 Apr 2009 05:54 am Post subject: |
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| I'm afraid I can't see what you are getting at. It appears to be that, because CO2 levels don't track CO2 production at exactly the same rate, then CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels isn't responsible for the increase in CO2 levels. |
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Lucy Skywalker Site Admin

Joined: 09 May 2006 Posts: 544 Location: Somerset, UK
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Posted: 26 Apr 2009 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| I've done more work on the piece, found more, made it all clearer I hope. For a while it looked like I had a piece of evidence the warmists would relish as "proof" of their POV that CO2 is increasing because of us. Well, that strange piece of strong correlation is there, and I cannot duck the mathematical beauty which is a beauty for warmists... Ferdinand, this looks like a big present for you... but it still goes against my commonsense that CO2 increase HAS to be at least in part because of warming. |
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hqmonaro Experienced User
Joined: 29 Mar 2009 Posts: 81
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Posted: 26 Apr 2009 01:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Lucy Skywalker wrote: | | I've done more work on the piece, found more, made it all clearer I hope. For a while it looked like I had a piece of evidence the warmists would relish as "proof" of their POV that CO2 is increasing because of us. Well, that strange piece of strong correlation is there, and I cannot duck the mathematical beauty which is a beauty for warmists... Ferdinand, this looks like a big present for you... but it still goes against my commonsense that CO2 increase HAS to be at least in part because of warming. |
That part is unarguable, as Spencer, Christy, and the rest of the 'skeptical' scientists, acknowledge. A greenhouse gas makes the earth warmer than a snowball. We are increasing the level of a greenhouse gas by a significant amount. The only debate is how much warming there will be. |
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Derek Experienced User

Joined: 12 Aug 2008 Posts: 209 Location: Manchester, England.
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Posted: 17 May 2009 09:43 am Post subject: |
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| hqmonaro wrote: | We are increasing the level of a greenhouse gas by a significant amount.
The only debate is how much warming there will be. |
hqmonaro - Wrong. Flat wrong. Assumed unobservable warming mechanism, it's that simple.
Models do not match reality, therefore their assumptions are also at best wide of the mark.
More likely GIGO, that means the assumptions you have just wrote in stone,
are nothing of the kind.
Just look at your last sentence above, where is the warming you say IS happening,
it is not.
The debate subject has to be decided yet, not your attempt to continue on an already dead path.
Lucy - I have not gone through your piece fully yet, but you know my opinion of MLO "averages" used as supposed "raw data".
Maybe the results are merely the product of the undescribed / uncheckable processing before the
"raw averages" are released.
We do now know there are many ludicrous assumptions hidden in equations and algorithms,
from Hockey Stick, to GCM's, and MLO.
When checked these hidden assumptions tell important stories, maybe your nearer to decifering the hidden assumptions.
You may well be shedding light on man's processing of the data, rather than the natural processes involved,
which will give a far better undertanding of what we are looking at in this case.. _________________
An induced feeling of guilt is not sufficient reason
to convict, or punish the human race. |
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hqmonaro Experienced User
Joined: 29 Mar 2009 Posts: 81
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Posted: 17 May 2009 01:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Assumed unobservable warming mechanism, it's that simple. |
Simple logic.
There is a greenhouse effect, as acknowledged by sceptical scientists. Fact.
There is an increase in a greenhouse gas. Fact.
Therefore, there will be an increase in the greenhouse effect. The only issue is, how much of an increase.
| Quote: | | In interviews Michaels has said that he does not contest the basic scientific principles behind greenhouse warming and acknowledges that global mean temperature has increased in recent decades, though he is widely regarded in the media as a global warming skeptic [4][5][6][7][8] who contends that the changes will be minor, |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_J._Michaels
As I said. |
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Derek Experienced User

Joined: 12 Aug 2008 Posts: 209 Location: Manchester, England.
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Posted: 17 May 2009 02:19 pm Post subject: |
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Given global mean temperature has been in stasis, (and more recently declining) since the late 1990s.
How do increased GHGs therefore increased greenhouse effect explain that.
I'm assuming there is an explanation.........
BTW -
I do not accept a heat trapping gas (with no known way to trap heat) can warm oceans when said gas is absorbed by said oceans.
I'll consider that, if it is first shown how the gas "traps" heat whilst in the atmosphere and
then releases the "trapped heat" into the oceans after being absorbed by the oceans
- utter fantasy. _________________
An induced feeling of guilt is not sufficient reason
to convict, or punish the human race.
Last edited by Derek on 17 May 2009 02:43 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Derek Experienced User

Joined: 12 Aug 2008 Posts: 209 Location: Manchester, England.
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Posted: 17 May 2009 02:23 pm Post subject: |
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| hqmonaro wrote: | | Quote: | | Assumed unobservable warming mechanism, it's that simple. |
Simple logic.
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OK, simple logic hey,
well go on then, explain the warming as modelled with no warming mechanism.......
1980 to the late 1990s was (at best) a convenient correlation, but since then..
Most sensible people would suggest linear assumptions that can not be observed
will sooner or later be shown to be wrong by the reaction of a complex system.
All natural systems, especially earth's climate are complex systems,
linear assumptions are at best misleading and more realistically irrelevant. _________________
An induced feeling of guilt is not sufficient reason
to convict, or punish the human race. |
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Derek Experienced User

Joined: 12 Aug 2008 Posts: 209 Location: Manchester, England.
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Posted: 17 May 2009 02:35 pm Post subject: |
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| hqmonaro wrote: |
There is an increase in a greenhouse gas. Fact. |
For an increased greenhouse effect and hence warming you must mean overall.
Overall, really, on what timescale - prove it.
If you are only referring to one GHG, and realistically admit global temperatures have been in stasis and recently declining,
then the GHG overall must have been declining if the GHG effects are dominant as you seem to be suggesting.
Hold on, by your own logic are you saying Dr. Miskolczi is correct.
The overall GHG effect is self regulating, regardless of man's emissions,
therefore man is not dominant, or even having much of an effect at all. _________________
An induced feeling of guilt is not sufficient reason
to convict, or punish the human race. |
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hqmonaro Experienced User
Joined: 29 Mar 2009 Posts: 81
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Posted: 18 May 2009 02:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | If you are only referring to one GHG, and realistically admit global temperatures have been in stasis and recently declining,
then the GHG overall must have been declining if the GHG effects are dominant as you seem to be suggesting. |
The CO2 greenhouse effect is not stronger than the short term variations. Look at 1998, that was another cyclical event. The overall trend is up. The best way to see it is to break up the decades. The current decade is warmer than the previous decade, which is warmer than the decade before it. |
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PAWB Experienced User

Joined: 14 Oct 2008 Posts: 69 Location: Devon, England
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Posted: 18 May 2009 04:31 pm Post subject: |
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hqmonaro:
You're talking a load of tosh. What do you mean | Quote: | | explain the warming as modelled with no warming mechanism? | I always thought the sun was a warming mechanism. How else have we had cyclical warmings and coolings over the last several thousand years without the sun providing the energy and the oceans storing and releasing that energy into the atmosphere?
I don't know what you mean by "as modelled". Do you mean the warming is in the climate models and not in reality? _________________ Phillip in Devon, England |
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Richard111 Experienced User
Joined: 19 Sep 2008 Posts: 433
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Posted: 18 May 2009 04:56 pm Post subject: |
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Anyone who claims that heat is trapped in the atmosphere by any means whatsoever hasn't a clue what they are talking about.
Heat can be temporarily stored in the oceans which will, over time, pass that heat to the atmosphere which can only pass that heat, by several mechanisms, up to space and out. |
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