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Peak Oil | Peak All | Climate Change | Curious Anomalies in Climate Science | Climate skeptics | What will we eat as the oil runs out? | Can Britain Feed Itself? |Overpopulation | Why nuclear power cannot fill the gap | Renewable energy cannot power a consumer society | All the mega-problems

Key Information - Global Challenges

Peak Oil Primer - Peak Oil means we have used up more than half of what’s available, and what’s left will cost more and more to extract. Our whole way of life, including food production, transport, and power, is based on the unsustainable idea of a "growth economy" which has become heavily dependent on cheap, plentiful oil for petrol, diesel, all plastics, all synthetic fabrics, heating, fertilizers, and electricity. This mega-challenge on our doorstep is still widely denied. But we still have a tiny "window of oppurtunity" to look for creative solutions and ways to wake people up while we still have cheap oil to help us plan our energy descent creatively... Oil is our biggest single energy source (37%); taken together with gas which is also expected to peak very soon, the total is 60%. When prices start to rise steeply, we will be affected in every part of our life. Food and agriculture have become particularly vulnerable... Read Peak Oil: a detailed and transparent analysis by top experts Chris Skrebowski and Phil Hart, in response to top denialists from CERA (the organization behind the UK Times report, 18 Jan 2008). Read the Hirsch Report stressing the urgent need to face Peak Oil, commissioned by the US government. Read about the GAO report commissioned by Senator Roscoe Bartlett, stating the urgent need for a peak oil strategy. Although the US "suburbia" will be hardest hit, Peak Oil will hit us all. "Every attempt to flog non-solutions (tar sands, shale, coal-to-liquids, hydrogen, ethanol) is precious time lost to get plausible alternatives." Key links: Energy Bulletin - ASPO - Post Carbon Institute - Oil Depletion Protocol. Sign the Petition from Power Switch. Read the rousing wake-up from LifeAfterTheOilCrash that converted Senator Bartlett. See the lovely Oily Cassandra.

Not just Peak Oil, Peak All is coming soon. Rare minerals used in flat-screen televisions and monitors, mobile phones, computer chips, solar cells, fluorescent light bulbs. Platinum for vehicle fuel cells. Phosphorus for fertilizer. And when oil production is perceived to have peaked, all energy-dependent costs will rocket, and a transition to a low-energy economy will occur whether we like it or not. It is not just oil - coal production world-wide is predicted to peak in 2030 – 2040. Ores of other important minerals are running low.

Climate Change: Is it as the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change portrays? There are serious challenges to the IPCC forecasts - and in two opposite directions! What is the truth, and what matters? Having taken in Al Gore's picture of Global Warming, we were challenged further with The Big Melt: how to respond to a "sustainability emergency" for which the evidence looked grimly clear? I studied the science and the counter-arguments, the clearest and most uptodate material. Then I was challenged again - not to stretch further, but to reverse directions! Does this challenge kick! ... It's tough re-examining, and checking with friends, inch by inch, what one thinks one has mastered. But I'm kinda getting used to looking at evidence by now! We try to be courteous - but even the best of us can fall short when we're proudly sure we're right, sure we're dealing with idiots in denial... Ten years of zero correlation between CO2 and global warming! This graph suggests that the link between these two was coincidence, though it seemed so evident from 1975-2000. Are there other causes? Explore Climate Change and Curious Anomalies. The evidence of this graph needs to be explained satisfactorily by the IPCC if it is to retain credibility. With the sense of global crisis upon us, we need to have a human-scale handle on the truth, we need to examine evidence for ourselves, to grasp the science, as well as human factors: experts' pride (how could we overlook something elementary?), overload, misplaced trust, pressure to stick to consensus, pressure from big business, fear of job loss, etc... Sea level could rise a lot - but only IF global warming continues. See the Hansen report (May 2007) and the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (Nov 2007). Hansen is the Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science; an eminent climate scientist; or is he just a maverick, frightening people? The Big Melt (Oct 2007, Carbon Equity) says that, in the light of Arctic ice melt observations, the IPCC report is dangerously conservative, that we have a "sustainability emergency" where it is imperative that we act now if we are to have a future on this planet. But - is the warming going to resume? Has it stopped, or could it even cool? And is Hansen correct, even if warming resumes? Climate Sceptics - who is right? Go here to see the familiar Climate Change picture, leading to the challenges with key evidence; here to see my own story and introduction to Climate Science "Curious Anomalies in Climate Science" here to see the best of the debate managed by those holding the consensus position here to see the best of the debate managed by those holding the skeptic position

What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out? - Richard Heinberg, Nov 2007, addressing Soil Association: "Our global food system faces a crisis of unprecedented scope" - Rising oil prices, biofuel displacing crops, extreme weather (Climate change), degrading topsoil, water loss, dependence on nitrates from the Haber process which uses fossil fuels, peak phosphorus, petrochemical pesticides, cities' dependence on transport: all these bring the harshest difficulties to the most impoverished nations, which threatens social unrest. "All these efforts [individual campaigns to fight poverty, protect topsoil, etc] are laudable; however, they largely fail to address the common sources of the dilemmas we face - human population growth, and society's and agriculture's reliance on fossil fuels."

Can Britain Feed Itself? - Simon Fairlie expands Kenneth Mellanby's 1975 report "on the back of an envelope" into a pdf report - in brief, he says that Britain can feed itself - but with less meat. Chemical, organic & permaculture ways are examined. This is a crucial piece of work that needs developing further and reviewing. We understand that the Soil Association is going to take up this work, perhaps together with Transition Towns.

Overpopulation and Overconsumption: Overpopulation exists when the population exceeds the stable carrying capacity of the country/planet. There are ten times as many Asians as North Americans, but one North American uses the resources of twenty Third World people. We have passed our sustainable limits for both of our major food energy sources, grains and fish, and we are very quickly reaching our fresh water limits.THIS IS THE TRUE SUSTAINABILITY ISSUE, behind all the rest. We need sensitive, holistic education to wake up, grasp a truer picture, take responsibility to contribute to solutions, support the drastic changes we need, and plan the civilized transition each individual needs to make if we are to survive with integrity.

Why Nuclear Power cannot fill the gap - summary/download of Lean Guide to Nuclear Energy by David Fleming, author of the Tradeable Energy Quota which is "becoming the standard reference [for carbon emissions] against which other ideas will be judged and found wanting" - Peak Uranium means that we cannot generate enough nuclear power to even handle its own waste - and when energy prices skyrocket, this will be even harder... it has greenhouse liabilities ... it is dangerous ...

Renewable Energy Cannot Power our Consumer Society - "this is one of the best arguments for the inevitability of energy descent yet to appear" - Rob Hopkins. Wind, biomass, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources could not (in current theory) meet present electricity demands. It is too difficult to generate and distribute enough hydrogen. Nuclear energy is not the answer - see below. Conclusion: our alarming global problems can only be solved by a transition to a society based on simpler, more self-sufficient and cooperative ways, within a zero-growth economy. Governments have a moral obligation to fund renewables research, and encourage local small-scale renewable energy generation, way beyond the insultingly low current level of funding. Politicians need Education for Sustainability!

All the mega-problems that challenge the 21st Century (this is the list by James Martin). Water shortages, excessive population growth, loss of ocean life, desertification, pandemics, unstoppable global migrations, violent religious extremisms, famine in ill-organized countries, etc.

We did a mind-map on Research to make key issues readily available - but we need so much more! How many people, for instance, know how many man-hours a gallon of petrol represents? (a gallon of petrol drives a car 20-30 miles; this is equivalent to 6-8 weeks' manual labour.) How many people know how much of our present energy consumption could be replaced by all the current viable alternative power sources?

"Snappy Facts" about crucial issues - both user-friendly and accurate. In the 70's there was an amazing series of little leaflets published by ECOROPA: short, pithy, informative, and accurate, issues like "Atomic Energy and Nuclear Weapons - the intimate connection" . This website serves a unique function in bringing together all the basic, essential "Snappy Facts" you will need to grasp for Transition, and offers help with holistic, spiritual awakening many people have found necessary to cope with such hard facts and still keep a sense of Life, Purpose, Meaning, and Hope.

The Transition movement is growing so fast - wouldn't a global resilience-building info/workbook, to which all in Transition can contribute, be really helpful? And - how can we enable the "Transition" political awakening to happen with integrity? How can Brits tell Bush to keep out of the global issues he's damaging? How can Westerners tell Chinese not to build more coal power stations? How can we stop the Amazon rainforests from catching fire and spiralling the problem? As Gandhi said, we must "Be The Change"... and this means being open to deep inner changes... awakening...

We need to "ratchet up" Education for Sustainability for everyone. This needs Research for Transition to Sustainability, not just for children or academics or governments but for all, and not just UK or "Western" but worldwide. It also needs a willingness to open up and seek help from the Great Spirit of the Universe, by whatever name we call God - Spirit - Allah - even Matt Simmons, top banker, advises prayer to handle Peak Oil.

• simple, friendly, "icons" of the basic scientific evidence crucial to Transition,
• the basics of good scientific method and how to distinguish good evidence from bad,
• the basics of agriculture and permaculture for sustainability,
• our share in building resilience and re-localization,
• the basics of economy, both global, national and local,
• our natural resistance to change, and our genius for hope,
• the psychology of addiction and how to pass "from darkness to light",
• the non-negotiable, utter, profound need to build solidarity,
• Sensitivity, Creativity, and Openness.

We've all heard about changing our light bulbs until we're sick of it. We need to reach far, far deeper. Even if the entire world fitted low energy bulbs, one day’s flying wipes out their whole effect. It will be "blood, sweat and tears", at times uncomfortable, since our whole social and economic way of life and expectations are challenged, deeply and unavoidably.

There are many fine inspirations to draw on. Before Gorbachev were people like Churchill, Alfred the Great, Martin Luther King, Gandhi, and many more. We can learn a lot from other peoples' strategies of integrity at times of great danger.

More loose ideas here

key page - last updated 1st October 2008

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